![]() ![]() However, in addition to the policy points of agreement – the Wahl-O-Mat doesn’t cover all existing policy, of course – strategic considerations also play a role.ĬLEW: No party questions the energy transition in general, except the Alternative for Germany (AfD), but there are differences in opinions about how it should be implemented. So, if the 38 Wahl-O-Mat policy questions were the decisive variable, a grand coalition would be most likely. In the three-way alliances, this is basically turned on its head: for a Jamaica coalition, there are 21 conflicts and only 9 questions where the parties agree. There were 20 points of agreement, and six conflicts among the Wahl-O-Mat questions. Looking at those coalitions that are possible according to the polls, it may be surprising that the Christian and Social Democrats – a grand coalition – also have a great stock of policy views in common. A Jamaica coalition would be strategically attractive then.ĬLEW: Looking at policy differences and similarities, which coalition talks would be easy, which would see the biggest obstacles?ĬS: The traditionally-desired alliances would be the easiest to form: Black-Yellow and Red-Green. Angela Merkel pursuing the long-term course of opening the CDU to the middle of the society may also play a role. If there were enough votes either for another grand coalition or a Jamaica coalition, we will see how much the Greens and the Free Democrats want to be part of the government, and how much the Christian Democrats want to get rid of the SPD. If there were enough votes for Black-Yellow, I think it’s fair to assume that this is the coalition which would be formed in the end. In addition, it will also be about preferences within the parties. There probably won’t be enough votes for a traffic light coalition, either. ![]() All other constellations are virtually out of the question, like Red-Red-Green. The second most likely option when going by the latest polls would be a ‘Jamaica coalition’, and then Black-Yellow or Black-Green. It’s a different question if this is actually desired. The questions on energy and climate topics included lignite use, diesel taxes and renewable energy.Ĭlean Energy Wire: Which possibilities for a new government coalition are there going to be after the election? Can we expect the continuation of the grand coalition? Will Black-Yellow ( CDU/ CSU- FDP) have enough votes?Ĭhristian Stecker: If you look at it from a purely arithmetic perspective, it is clear that there would be enough votes for a grand coalition in practically every scenario. Stecker and his colleagues at the MZES compared the parties’ policy positions based on the 38 questions posed by the Federal Agency for Civic Education ( bpb) to develop its renowned Wahl-O-Mat – an online application aimed at showing voters which parties align best with their personal views.
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